Exports Hit the Bottom
2Q EBSI stood at 99.9 … export conditions for ships, cars and oil will improve -
the exports in the second quarter is remaining the same level as that of the
previous quarter, there are signs of improvement in some items such as ships,
automobiles, and petroleum.
to the report titled ‘2019 Second Quarter
Export Business Survey Index (EBSI)’ issued by the Institute
for International Trade (President, Shin Seung-kwan) of the Korea International
Trade Association on March 31th based on a survey of 932 local export
companies, the EBSI for the second quarter stood at 99.9 and signaling that the
sharp decline has stopped. The first quarter’s EBSI was
index below 100 indicates that the export conditions will be worse than now.
item, the report forecast that the exports of steel and nonferrous metal
products, electrical and electronic products, agricultural and marine products,
machinery and semiconductors will deteriorate. In particular, steel products
are facing difficulties due to import regulations in the United States and EU
as well as intensifying competition with China. Moreover, the conditions for
semiconductors are still difficult to turnaround due to falling unit prices and
delayed demand recovery from global IT companies.
contrast, shipbuilding exports are expected to improve significantly from the
second quarter thanks to the delivery of the orders placed in 2017. The exports
of petroleum and chemical industries that were sluggish in the first quarter
are also expected to increase as export prices rise with the international oil
item, 'import regulation · trade conflicts'
(87.3) and 'export profitability' (89.7) are expected to worsen. In the case of
import regulations and trade conflicts, the industries’
insecurities regarding the US-China trade negotiations that do not seem to have
clear agreements have been reflected. On the other hand, ‘export consultations’ (102.2), ‘export contracts’ (102.5) and ‘economies of export destinations’ (101.0) are
expected to improve slightly from the first quarter.
companies selected ‘rising raw material
prices’ (18.4%), ‘buyers'
demand for price cuts’ (15.4%) and ‘sluggish economies of export destinations’
(10.6%) as the main difficulties in the second quarter.
Seo-kyung, a researcher at the Institute for International Trade of the Korea
International Trade Association, said, “EBSI
for the second quarter has remained at the same level as the first quarter,” and stressed, “The sluggish demand due to
the global economic slowdown will continue for a while. Therefore, companies
are required to make efforts such as strengthening export marketing to overcome
the difficult export conditions.”